Southern Syria, once the quietest corner of the country’s multisided conflict, has unexpectedly become the most volatile flashpoint between America and Iran as the two countries vie for control.
The U.S. military has moved mobile artillery-rocket launchers into southern Syria for the first time, as American troops in the area face increasing dangers from Iran-backed forces. Iran’s best-known military commander, meanwhile, was photographed praying with allied fighters in Syria, a visit seen by some U.S. officials as a public taunt by Tehran. Worried that the situation may spiral out of control, top U.S. military commanders are pressing Moscow to step in.
“This is rapidly developing, it’s not settled at all and I don’t even know that there’s a good direction determined yet,” one U.S. official said. “Everybody’s trying to figure out what to do here. It’s in nobody’s interest for us to get into an active fight with these pro-regime forces.”
For years, the U.S. military has focused its firepower in Syria on defeating Islamic State and largely avoided direct confrontations with President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and his Iranian allies. But the risks of a combustive confrontation in southern Syria have unexpectedly increased as the U.S. has ramped up its operations against Islamic State.
The jostling is partly driven by a view among some U.S. officials that the vast desert could become a staging ground for President Donald Trump’s nascent efforts to counter Iranian influence in the region, including Tehran’s efforts to establish firm control over weapons supply routes running through Iraq, Syria and into Lebanon.
Elite U.S. special operations forces have stepped up training and brought in more firepower to a small garrison known as al Tanf, near a key border crossing with Iraq. About 150 U.S. special operations forces are rotating in-and-out of the training base, U.S. officials said. In Syria’s north, more than 750 U.S. Marines and soldiers are using helicopters, artillery and airstrikes to help Syrian fighters push Islamic State from Raqqa, the extremist group’s largest remaining stronghold in Syria.
Last month, the U.S. military carried out a rare airstrike on allies of Mr. Assad, who were heading toward the garrison and were viewed as a threat. That was followed by three more airstrikes, including the shootdown of an Iranian-made drone that had attacked U.S. military advisers in southern Syria.
While the U.S. has stopped short of publicly identifying the kind of drone used in the attack, U.S. officials have said it was an Iranian-made Shahed 129. U.S. officials said they may never figure out who was piloting the Predator-size drone, but they have narrowed their suspicions down to either Iran or Syria.
New details about last Friday’s shootdown of the drone over the vast desert in southeastern Syria points to the expanding risks U.S. forces are taking in the area. U.S. forces watched as the drone repeatedly circled a small patrol base recently set up by Western advisers working alongside Syrian fighters, U.S. officials said. The drone dropped a munition near the small military outpost, but it didn’t explode. As the drone continued to circle the area, a U.S. F-15 took aim and blew it out of the sky, they said.
The increasing hostilities have triggered a debate in Washington over how to respond. Some Trump administration officials, including the State Department’s point man on the fight against Islamic State, want to avoid taking provocative steps that could lead to clashes with fighters backed by Tehran, Damascus and Moscow, U.S. and Western officials said. Others, including top U.S. military commanders, see a need to more aggressively confront an increasing threat posed by Iran-backed forces trying to seize an advantage.
Those pushing for a more aggressive approach have been encouraged by Mr. Trump’s hostility toward Tehran, a marked departure from former President Barack Obama, who steered around military confrontations with Iran while negotiating a nuclear deal with the country’s leaders.
While the U.S. focuses on Islamic State, Mr. Assad’s forces and their allies are pushing toward a key Iraq-Syria border crossing in the south now held by Islamic State. The offensive, U.S. officials said, appears aimed at preventing U.S.-backed Syrian rebels trained at al Tanf from moving north to seize the Abu Kamal border crossing.
Control of Abu Kamal would allow the rebels to cut off any possible Iranian weapons shipments both to the Damascus government and to the militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“The idea is to cut off access to the border and routes for weapons flows from Tehran to Beirut,” said a U.S. official based in the Middle East who monitors the situation.
The Abu Kamal border crossing in Deir Ezzour province has been a key land bridge for Islamic State forces to travel in and out of Iraq and Syria and also is strategic for its proximity to the extremist group’s key source of revenue: nearby oil fields in Deir Ezzour.
U.S. officials say Islamic State moved much of its leadership and equipment to the province as they came under increased pressure in Raqqa and Mosul in Iraq, and they expect the extremists to launch a last stand for its self-declared caliphate there.
As the rival military forces jockey for position, Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, head of the U.S.-led coalition battling Islamic State, has repeatedly asked the Russian military to constrain its allies in Syria, U.S. officials said. Gen. Townsend has sent blunt warnings to Russia that the U.S. won’t shy away from a fight if Moscow doesn’t help, they said.
To help check further threats, the U.S. military has sent High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems into southern Syria for the first time to protect the small garrison at al Tanf. Military officials are concerned that forces backed by Damascus and Iranmay also try to seize a border crossing near the U.S. rebel-training base. The U.S. has established a 33-mile buffer zone around the base and told regime forces to steer clear.
The expanding U.S. military moves are being countered by Iran. Earlier this week, Qassem Soleimani, head of Iran’s elite Qods Force, was photographed praying in southern Syria with militants backed by Tehran.
The photos didn’t escape notice at the Pentagon, where Defense Secretary Jim Mattis is intent on preventing Iran from seizing an advantage in Syria.
“Jim Mattis has spent the last 15 years thinking about Iran,” said one U.S. official. “He’s not going to let the Iranians surprise him.”
One U.S. official based overseas said the clashes in southern Syria are an indication that Washington can’t dictate terms to rivals looking to thwart American plans.
“I think it’s emblematic of the broader contradictions in our policy between the immediate focus on utilizing virtually any and all tools available to defeat Daesh, and the ripple effects from the choices we make on the post-ISIL landscape,” said a second U.S. official. “Just because we want to approach this sequentially doesn’t mean Tehran will—and clearly isn’t.”
