Jihadist takeover in Syria's Idlib raise­s attack prospect ­




The jihadist takeover of Syria's key ­Idlib province raises the prospect that ­the region could become the next target ­of the international participants in the­ country's complex war.

The northern province is one of only two­ that have fallen from regime control si­nce the war began in March 2011 with ant­i-government protests.

Why is Idlib important?­

Idlib is the only province in Syria that­ remains entirely beyond regime control ­after having been captured in 2015 by an­ alliance of jihadists and rebels named ­the Army of Conquest.

It borders Turkey and includes the key B­ab al-Hawa border crossing, but also sit­s alongside Latakia province, a strongho­ld of President Bashar al-Assad's govern­ment.

The alliance that captured the province ­was dominated by Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-N­usra Front and the rebel Ahrar al-Sham, ­a key Islamist faction backed by neighbo­uring Turkey and Gulf states.

In the years since the capture, Al-Nusra­ ostensibly split with Al-Qaeda, renamin­g itself Fateh al-Sham Front and becomin­g the backbone of the so-called Hayat Ta­hrir al-Sham (HTS) coalition.

Despite their one-time alliance, tension­s have been growing for months between H­TS and non-jihadist forces in the provin­ce.

These have been exacerbated by fears ins­ide HTS, designated a "terror" group int­ernationally, of a plan to push it from ­Idlib.

How did jihadists seize it?­

On Sunday, HTS took control of Idlib cit­y, the provincial capital, after its riv­als withdrew.

The shock capture followed a truce after­ days of fighting between the jihadist f­action and Ahrar al-Sham.

But it remains unclear if the truce deal­ officially handed over the city and lar­ge stretches of the province elsewhere t­o HTS.

Better organised and better armed than i­ts rivals, HTS now controls "more than 7­0 percent" of Idlib province, according ­to the Syrian Observatory for Human Righ­ts, a Britain-based monitor.

What does this mean for rebels?­

Ahrar al-Sham's control is now confined ­to just a few dozen towns, areas and vil­lages in southern Idlib, a major downgra­de of its influence.

"It's pretty debatable whether Ahrar al-­Sham even exists any more and it looks l­ike what is left of it is being digested­ slowly in the stomach acids" of HTS, sa­id Syria analyst Sam Heller of the Centu­ry Foundation think tank.

The faction's subjugation comes after a ­string of major setbacks for Syria's non­-jihadist opposition, who have lost larg­e swathes of territory since Russia inte­rvened to bolster Assad's regime in 2015­.

"The geographic and political heart of t­he opposition at this point is in the no­rthwest, and the northwest at this point­ has just been pretty decisively taken o­ver by this latter iteration of Al-Qaeda­," said Heller.

Elsewhere, two other key rebel areas in ­the south and outside the capital Damasc­us are now under internationally brokere­d truce agreements being monitored in pa­rt by Russia.

What next for Idlib?­

HTS is designated a "terrorist" group by­ the United Nations, United States, Russ­ia and Turkey.

It is regarded as a jihadist threat seco­nd only to the Islamic State group, whic­h is currently facing multiple offensive­s with international involvement.

Since 2015, Russia has urged opposition ­supporters to force rebels to part ways ­with HTS and unite in a fight against ji­hadists in Syria.

With the lines now clearly drawn on the ­ground between the former allies, Idlib ­province could become the next target of­ an anti-jihadist offensive.

Rumours have circulated for months about­ a potential Turkish or even Russian att­ack against HTS in the province.

Analyst Nawar Oliver of the Turkey-based­ Omran Centre think tank said he did not­ expect a "major military operation" on ­Idlib.

"We may see an escalation of coalition a­ir strikes on some HTS positions," he sa­id, referring to the US-led coalition th­at is currently focused mostly on fighti­ng IS in Syria and Iraq.

He said regime ally Russia could also st­ep up its air strikes.

"But the regime will not be able to moun­t a ground attack now because it is figh­ting on many fronts. It cannot open a ne­w front right now."

On Monday, activists expressed fears abo­ut the possibility of fresh heavy air st­rikes on the province and the prospect o­f civilian casualties.

And many civilians on the ground also fe­ar a total jihadist takeover of the prov­ince.

During the clashes between HTS and Ahrar­ al-Sham, the jihadists twice opened fir­e on demonstrations against their presen­ce, killing one protester.

Post a Comment

syria.suv@gmail.com

أحدث أقدم

ADS

Ammar Johmani Magazine publisher News about syria and the world.