Enab Baladi, Amir Huquq
Amid the rapid changes unfolding in Suwayda (southern Syria), and the diverging positions among the governorate’s religious, social, and political leaders, a series of statements and stances has emerged, reflecting how complex the current phase has become.
At the forefront of these developments is the announcement by the Emir of Dar Ara (in Suwayda governorate), Hassan al-Atrash, that he has left Suwayda for Damascus. He justified the move as an effort to spare bloodshed and prevent internal strife, as a different political discourse continues to escalate inside the governorate.
At a time when al-Atrash stressed his commitment to Syria’s unity and rejected any separatist path, calls led by Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri in Suwayda continue to promote political options outside the centralized framework, including proposals linked to seeking external support.
These intersecting positions place the governorate at a sensitive political and security crossroads, and raise pressing questions about where Suwayda is headed, how wide the gap is among local forces, and whether a new roadmap can take shape in light of recent developments.
Shrinking room for “political maneuvering”
Hassan al-Atrash’s departure from Suwayda came at an extremely sensitive moment. The governorate is experiencing political tension and a split in visions over its future. The move carries implications that go beyond the personal, touching the mountain’s internal balances and its relationship with the central state. This has raised questions about the political meaning of the departure, its impact on the local scene, and whether it signals a repositioning within Suwayda’s political map.
Political writer Darwish Khalifa believes al-Atrash’s stance reflects a clear tendency not to align with factional forces that could deepen divisions within the Syrian Druze community.
Suwayda’s local landscape is undergoing a process of reshaping following the decline of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) project in eastern Syria. That decline has weakened the space for political maneuvering available to hardline currents, foremost among them the current linked to Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri and what is known as the “National Guard,” according to Khalifa.
A pattern of co opting leading figures
Ammar Jello, a researcher at the Hiwar Center for Research and Studies in Washington, expected that Prince Hassan al-Atrash’s exit is tied to a pattern the Syrian government previously followed in northeastern Syria. That approach involved drawing in tribal figures ahead of the events and clashes that began in Sheikh Maqsoud and al-Ashrafieh neighborhoods (in Aleppo city, northern Syria) on 6 January. Those clashes were followed by the arrival of government forces to various points in the area, whether officially or de facto.
Jello believes the Syrian government is using the same approach in Suwayda by co opting influential figures and local bodies, paving the way for a later entry by Damascus, militarily, in security terms , or officially, into the region.
He noted that among these figures is Hassan al-Atrash, who holds symbolic weight due to his lineage extending to Sultan al-Atrash, the leader of the Great Syrian Revolt against French rule.
Jello added that this step could be followed by other moves by different figures, as Sheikh al-Hijri’s influence declines day by day. He considered this context the most likely explanation for Prince Hassan’s departure, whether or not it is truly linked to “sparing bloodshed.”
“The Syrian government is following an approach of co opting leading figures and local bodies in Suwayda, in preparation for creating a later gateway for entering the city.”
Ammar Jello, researcher at the Hiwar Center for Research and Studies in Washington
The timing of the stance
Against al-Atrash’s discourse, which emphasized Syria’s unity and rejected any path outside the national framework, Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri’s position stands out as calling for different political options. This contrast raises questions about the impact of al-Atrash’s stance and its timing.
Darwish Khalifa believes the timing itself is telling. It came during a moment of sharp polarization, when the room for a centrist position is shrinking. As a figure whose historical symbolism is tied to his grandfather Sultan Pasha al-Atrash, al-Atrash lacks a military backbone that would allow him to impose an independent position in an equation dominated by the logic of weapons.
This reality leaves him vulnerable to pressure from factions seeking to capitalize on his national symbolism in an internal battle over representation.
From this perspective, Khalifa argues, al-Atrash’s exit can be understood as a choice to avoid joining a high ceiling discourse that likely does not align with the direction of regional states or with the American approach to the Syria file.
Accordingly, al-Atrash appears to have preferred preserving an ethical and political space that allows him to defend the unity of the mountain and Druze community more broadly, rather than joining a project that could lead to political isolation.
At the same time, his departure constitutes moral pressure on Sheikh al-Hijri and the factional forces aligned with him, as it brings the question of representation and national responsibility to the forefront, according to Khalifa.
Jello agreed, saying that Sheikh al-Hijri’s current and the military council previously practiced actions that support al-Atrash’s claims of being implicated in bloodshed. He pointed to an incident in which personalities were arrested and then killed the next day, describing it as striking and influential, and as a precedent in the city for a current that holds or dominates local authority. This lends those claims a degree of credibility.
Suwayda city witnessed security tensions following an arrest campaign targeting figures opposed to Sheikh al-Hijri on 28 November 2025, which led to the deaths of Maher Fallhout and Raed al-Matni after their detention.
Jello said local interactions and rivalries are escalating between a current that seeks to monopolize representation of the community, and may later burden it with the consequences of its deadly mistakes, while the outcomes ultimately serve personal gains.
Government forces drawing closer to Suwayda
Suwayda’s security director, Suleiman Abdul Baqi, said that the entry of government forces into Suwayda is approaching, and that the goal of the operation is to “restore the prestige of the law and protect the city, not break it.”
He pledged that no violations would occur, and said accountability would extend to anyone who committed abuses from any side, with no protection or cover for any corrupt actor. He added that those who defended their land, dignity, and homes would not be harmed, while those who exploited the name of dignity and blood for personal interests would be held accountable.
According to Darwish Khalifa, Abdul Baqi’s statements can be read on two levels:
First, politically, a message that the authorities in Damascus are moving forward in restoring control over Syria’s entire geography, and that any local arrangements cannot stand outside that ceiling.
Second, on the ground, implementing this vision collides with deep social sensitivities toward the entry of large armed forces, especially given the memory of previous confrontations and the zero-sum positions exchanged by both sides. Without prior understandings and clear guarantees, any entry could become a trigger for explosion rather than a gateway to stability.
The scene is governed by crisis management
Regarding whether there is a roadmap based on recent developments, Khalifa said it is difficult to speak of a fully formed path so far. The more likely scenario is that the scene is governed by crisis management rather than the implementation of a comprehensive plan.
A partial version of the “eastern region” model could be revisited in terms of gradual steps or repositioning, but with a fundamental difference tied to Suwayda’s particular sensitivities, and the possibility that the Israeli dimension may intersect with its security and political calculations. This factor is not present to the same degree east of the Euphrates River.
“Suwayda stands at a crossroads between a rhetorical escalation that could compound risks, and a gradual settlement that reintegrates it into the state under new conditions. Local actors are operating within a narrow margin, where every step carries a political cost that extends beyond the mountain itself.”
Darwish Khalifa , political writer
Political arrangements to extend control over the south
Ammar Jello believes Abdul Baqi’s statements are based on political arrangements the government may be making with regional and international actors to reassert Damascus’s control over southern Syria, and to end what he described as destabilizing Israeli intervention originating from the south. This would come after closing the northeastern file, which he said had served as a key pillar and a model for those calling for federalism in Syria, whether in the south or along the Syrian coast.
He expected the reassertion of control to be a matter of time, with the possibility that residents will react to a pressure policy aimed at weakening al-Hijri’s current and portraying it as incapable of securing services, engaging with the local community, or reaching understandings with Damascus or with the states that sponsor what are called Druze rights in Syria.
Jello said the nature of any potential entry, whether security or military, will be determined by field developments. However, he considered it likely to be more disciplined than the entry of government forces into parts of northeastern Syria, especially after the violations seen in July 2025, due to the entry of undisciplined elements within factions that did not adhere to the government’s decision, which inflamed the situation at the time.
Jello concluded that any entry now would be tightly controlled, aimed at showing that Damascus’s forces are concerned with protecting all citizens, regardless of religious, sectarian, or ethnic diversity. He said the central goal is to end separatist projects in Syria.
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