Enab Baladi – Omar Alaa Eldin
In the wake of Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani’s visit to Moscow and his meeting with both Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 31, Syrians on social media are asking whether al-Shibani carried with him to Moscow a demand that includes the handover of Assad and his associates residing in Russia under the guise of humanitarian refuge.
Minister al-Shibani, during a press conference with the Russian foreign minister, touched on several issues in Syria, most notably the partnership with Russia in the transitional justice track.
Al-Shibani expressed Syria’s aspiration for full cooperation and coordination with Russia “to support the transitional justice track in it in a way that ensures restoring dignity to the victims,” noting that Syrian-Russian relations are at a “decisive and historic” juncture, and that their cooperation is based on “respect.”
Lavrov, in that same press conference, said that “we firmly believe that the path to lasting normalization in Syria lies in comprehensive dialogue, enhancing national reconciliation, civil peace, and protecting the rights of all segments of Syrian multi-sectarian society.”
Russia Ignores Urgent Issues
Lavrov did not address transitional justice, the handover of Assad and his associates to Syrian authorities, or the return of financial assets looted by Assad and placed in Russian banks.
The Russian Foreign Ministry did not respond to Enab Baladi’s inquiries as to whether there is any intention to hand over Bashar al-Assad or his close associates, or whether such discussions took place during al-Shibani’s visit to Moscow.
Russian political researcher Dmitry Bridzhe believes that al-Shibani’s remarks on transitional justice reflect a deeper shift in the new Syrian political mindset: “For the first time, a Syrian official goes abroad and asks a major international partner like Russia to support a path of accountability, not cover-up.”
While it is true, as Bridzhe noted, that al-Shibani did not mention Assad by name, he did not need to—the wording was precise, well-crafted, and the message was clear: those who committed crimes against Syrians must be held accountable, and those who assisted them must choose between defending the people or colluding with their perpetrators.
Here, according to Bridzhe, Russia enters an ethical and strategic test simultaneously. He asks: Is Russia willing to be part of national reconciliation? Will it allow a government to build new legitimacy on the foundations of law and equity to take the initiative? Or will it insist on protecting its past at the cost of its future relations in the Middle East?
Syrian political analyst Hussam Talib does not expect Russia to hand over the former regime’s president, Bashar al-Assad, to Damascus—as long as they granted him humanitarian refuge, they have no intention of handing him over.
Talib told Enab Baladi that Russia may work at the level of returning some of the funds looted from Syria, or freezing the activities of Assad, his family, and associates—placing them in quasi-house arrest—but the handover is not expected.
Russia is sheltering the deposed president, Bashar al-Assad, his family, and a number of his close associates. Syrians accuse Assad of being the primary supervisor of crimes and violations committed against the Syrian people, including the use of chemical weapons on civilians and the arrest and enforced disappearance of thousands.
A Slip of the Tongue
Rami al-Shaer, an advisor close to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that Russia reiterated through the Syrian delegation’s meeting with President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov its readiness to assist Syria in all fields so it can begin economic recovery and improve living conditions—the fundamental factors for social stability and restoring normal life in terms of security and stability.
Al-Shaer told Enab Baladi that Russia understands the transitional justice track and affirmed its willingness to help Syria, suggesting that this is what al-Shibani meant by sincere cooperation and coordination to address Syria’s conditions.
As for restoring dignity to victims, al-Shaer described this statement as a “slip of the tongue” by al-Shibani—because that is “a matter for Syrians” that should be resolved through national reconciliation, focusing on unity and abandoning what he called “pendent sectarian and ethnic tendencies,” and taking into primary consideration the interest of the Syrian people as a whole.
He added that, unfortunately, many Syrians have yet to understand the role Russia played in saving Syria from what he called a “wide sectarian civil war” multiple times.
As an example, al-Shaer mentioned that a destructive war could have occurred: “Had it not been for the Russian intervention in 2015 and its persuasion of armed opposition factions on the outskirts of Damascus to withdraw and move to Idlib, Damascus would have been destroyed.”
Once again, he said, Russia saved Syria—when it convinced Moscow to have Bashar al-Assad leave Syria, relinquish the presidency, dissolve the Syrian Army (the regime’s army) and the security agencies, and avoid engaging in a battle with opposition factions. That, al-Shaer said, ultimately prevented a Syrian-Syrian war and a broad sectarian civil war.
On August 5, the head of the Syrian “Transitional Justice Commission,” Abdel Basset Abdel Latif, revealed that the commission is working to build bridges with Interpol and all international bodies concerned to legally pursue the deposed head of state, Bashar al-Assad, his family, his brother Maher—commander of the Fourth Division—and others, so they can be held accountable.
During his interview with Al -Arabiya, Abdul-Latif did not exclude holding cross-border “militants” accountable—including members of Lebanon’s Hezbollah proven to be involved in Syrian bloodshed.
He said work is underway to hold symbols of the former regime who committed violations accountable through legal means—even if they are fugitives abroad—and to prosecute criminals against the Syrian people.
Position Scenarios
Al-Shaer said that “Russia has given guarantees to Assad and his close associates residing in Russia and their families to live there. On what basis can Russia renege on these guarantees and hand over Bashar al-Assad and those with him?”
He pointed to Russia’s unwillingness to retract the guarantees it provided, which “contributed to saving Syria.”
He expressed astonishment at many Syrians’ lack of appreciation for Russia’s role in enabling the new regime to assume power in Syria “peacefully.” He considered it necessary for Syrians to abandon any sectarian grudges or tendencies, through which Syria could enjoy what he called “national justice.”
The Russian ambassador to Baghdad, Elbrus Kutrashev, said on April 3 in an interview with Iraq’s Al- Sharqiya TV that Bashar al-Assad has the right to asylum in Moscow and that his handover is not on the table.
He added that Russia does not engage in such deals, and that Assad’s downfall was not due to a Russian or Iranian stance, but because of the situation in Syria, the regime itself, and the regime’s position.
One of the conditions for the deposed Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, to reside in Moscow is that he has no media or political activity, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, as heard by a Russian source during his visit to Iraq.
A Russian source, speaking to Enab Baladi on condition of anonymity, citing security concerns, said Assad’s fate is confined within several scenarios, including remaining in Russia with the situation as it is—although that option is unlikely, as it would create future problems Russia does not desire with Syria, which would naturally threaten its interests.
Another scenario, closer to the fate of Yevgeny Prigozhin (former Wagner forces leader, died in plane crash in August 2023) or Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny (died of health crisis in Russian prison in February 2024), involves deterioration of his health, which addresses part of the outstanding issues between Russia and Syria—with the handover to Damascus ruled out, as that would create the impression that Moscow betrays its allies.
Russia has a long history of eliminating and assassinating political figures who once posed concerns or threats to its interests, such as the assassination of former Russian agent Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006, after being poisoned with radioactive uranium.
The source indicated that “all of Bashar al-Assad’s political cards are now burned,” and the most likely scenario before him is assassination. His handover would lead regimes cooperating with Russia to avoid partnering with it, harming Russia’s reputation, and recalling the fates of Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein, Russia’s former friends; Russia does not wish to revisit old chapters, despite shifts in Russian policy and potential transformations in that policy through 2030. If Assad remains alive until then, he may be handed over.
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