Enab Baladi – Marina Marhej
With the Syrian crisis dragging on and its economic and social repercussions deepening, defining or accurately describing the identity of the Syrian economy grows ever more difficult. We now exist in an incomplete intermediate state.
The economy has not only been a victim of war; it has gradually become a tool within it. Systems of corruption, militarization of resources, and the rise of powerful interest networks during the previous regime—all thrived on the ruins of the state, filling the void left by dwindling oversight and legislative institutions.
Internally, the economy faces significant challenges, including the delayed integration of northeastern Syria and security events in As-Suwayda. Externally, international actors compete to impose their agendas through the gateway of anticipated reconstruction.
In this context, Enab Baladi asked experts to share their expectations and visions regarding the shape of the Syrian economy, its defining characteristics, and the structural obstacles facing any reform or rebuilding project.
“Oligarchy” or Rule Prematurely Asserted?
Discussing a definitive economic identity for Syria at present is premature, according to Dr. Zakwan Kreit, professor in the Business Administration Department at the Faculty of Economics, University of Damascus.
Kreit believes that a clear definition of Syria’s economic nature requires a long period of stability that has yet to commence.
He told Enab Baladi that a clear economic identity cannot be assigned to Syria’s economy until at least a year after the fall of the Assad regime.
Conversely, Dr. Samir al-Taqi, founder and Director General of the Orient Research Center (ORC), proposes a dual-path scenario, based on deep political-economic observations.
“To us,” al-Taqi told Enab Baladi, “we see neither a clear shift to liberalism, nor the continuation of a state-controlled model. Rather, we face a crossroads between two opposing models:
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A path leading to the reconstruction of a corrupt state-capitalist oligarchy, in which high-level bureaucracy and corrupt ‘oligarchs’ exploit the economy for their benefit, effectively writing the state in their names.
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A path toward a liberal, open state capitalism founded on the rule of law and a conducive investment climate—an economy linked to production, not to oligarchs who loot wealth and transfer it abroad, as happened in post-Soviet Russia.”
Dr. Qreit themselves believes that today’s situation is neither fully oligarchic nor truly free, but rather “relatively free and somewhat guided.”
The concept of “oligarchy” refers to a form of governance where political power is concentrated in a small segment of society distinguished by wealth, lineage, or military authority
—Political Encyclopedia.
Economy in the Hands of “The Powerful,” Not Institutions
Amid the absence of effective oversight and legislative institutions, non-official or extrajudicial forms of economy emerge. Economist Mohammad Albi describes this path with precision, identifying today’s Syrian economy as veering close to a traditional “oligarchy,” albeit with uniquely Syrian traits.
He explains to Enab Baladi that a select group of individuals or networks tied to power commands key economic resources, monopolizing investment opportunities or playing roles as brokers in a hybrid and opaque system. They dominate the business environment without transparency or accountability.
He attributes this to the four economic decrees issued on July 9, which extended authority from the executive to the legislative—adopting legislation, altering laws, and breaching constitutional limits on public finances and transparency in managing public funds.
Yet Albi does not consider this evolving monopolistic control a fully mature “oligarchic” model. Rather, he portrays Syria’s economy as a disjointed shadow economy that arose amid institutional collapse, fragmented geography, and competing monetary authorities.
“Post-Assad Syria’s economy is in an unresolved transitional stage pulled by forces of oligarchy, militia interests, institutional voids, and the absence of a clear national economic project. This interaction impedes growth potential and jeopardizes economic stability.”
— Mohammad Albi,
Economic Researcher
No Economic Renaissance Without Political Legitimacy
The Syrian economy is not a standalone sector to be fixed solely through financial or technical tools—it mirrors the political landscape, embodies power struggles, and represents war management through economic means.
Thus, any vision for Syria’s economic identity remains incomplete without a comprehensive political settlement. Such an agreement must redefine the state, reorganize the relationship between institutions and society, and establish a new social contract—one that grants the nation a clear direction, shared purpose, and a sound economic identity.
Economic researcher Mohammad Albi warned that believing a rentier economy based on aid can revive the economy is naive.
He insists the solution must first be political and institutional, with three interlinked paths addressed simultaneously:
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Establishing national political legitimacy: Building a true representative authority, including a legislative body that holds the executive accountable; launching a transitional decentralized financial and administrative model; redefining the state as organizer and guarantor of economic justice—not as the sole economic actor.
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Restructuring monetary and financial framework: Unified monetary control via a transitional independent central bank; overhaul of public and private banks; anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing measures; investment in technical infrastructure to reduce reliance on cash; legal regulation of banking for transparency, restored trust, removal from financial gray lists, and encouragement of foreign banks.
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Adopting a fair social-market model: Embracing a mixed economy that balances justice and efficiency while supporting vulnerable groups—including the displaced, persons with disabilities, female heads of households, affected area residents, and dismissed public-sector employees.
Realistic Steps to Revive the Economy
Dr. Zakwan Kreit proposes practical measures that could serve as starting points for reshaping Syria’s economy—contingent on a supportive political environment:
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Encouraging investment: Offering tax incentives and facilitating business registration.
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Developing productive sectors: Bolstering agriculture and industry by supporting farmers and SMEs to promote local production and job creation.
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Enhancing education and vocational training: Equipping youth to meet labor market needs.
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Restoring citizen-state trust: Increasing transparency in budgets and public projects; involving civil society in economic policymaking.
Given this complexity, Syria’s economic future hinges on profound political changes that go beyond crisis management, establishing a new social contract to end current disorder and reclaim the state’s role as regulator, not monopolist.
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